Economic Calendar
Tuesday- AUD interest rates
Wednesday- US Crude oil inventories/ FOMC minutes
Important Headlines
USOIL H4
Crude oil is trading below its 4-hour trendline and the key level of $100 is weighing down on its price. As discussed last week, the US is releasing its oil stockpile starting in May while OPEC+ is also increasing its supply. Over the weekend, a truce has also been made between UAE and the Iran Houthi group that would halt military actions on the Saudi-Yemeni border which means a more stable oil supply from the region.
TC Economic Insight
NFP figures matched forecasted pretty well with a print of 431k vs 460k forecasted. It was the first NFP since the rate hike and there wasn’t much impact on the markets as seen in EURUSD.
EURUSD M30
The pair only move 15 pips in 30 minutes following the NFP announcement. However, the pair continued to edge downwards after a fakeout to the upside.
As Asia opened, EURUSD bounced off minor support at 1.1032. If it continues to the downside, we are expecting 1.0975 as the next support.
XAUUSD
XAUUSD H4
The gold market is very indecisive too. It moved in a range lesser than 20 dollars following NFP (it is usually way more volatile than this). Currently, we are waiting for a significant breakout from this 1905-1950 range. The outlook is biased towards bears as bullion is weighed by a firm USD.
USDJPY
USDJPY H1
USDJPY bounced back higher, trading at 122.62 after a correction from its 125 high. We are eyeing for it to break above 123.15 resistance. Why? Because...
The probability for a 50 basis point rate hike in May is almost 70%, which means the dollar is going to get even stronger compared to JPY. Not to forget that the BOJ is also very dovish in its stance.
Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
US Stocks
SP500 closed last Friday with a slight gain of 0.34%, Dow Jones a mere 0.01% gain, while USTEC closed down -0.22%. It was a really, really slow NFP indeed.
SP500
SPX Daily
DJ30
DJ30 Daily
USTEC
USTEC Daily
Since they all didn’t make any significant moves since last Friday, all technical levels from Friday (1/4/2022) remain valid.
BTCUSD
BTCUSD Daily
It has been a full week since Bitcoin broke the 45000 key resistance. However, we are still waiting for any signs of bullishness. Could it be a fakeout, or is it just getting ready to move higher? We will need to wait for the price action in the next few days before any preferences can be made
Welf
Technical Analyst, Trader
