Economic Calendar 

Tuesday- US CPI 

Wednesday-  GBP CPI, New Zealand, and Canada Interest Rate decision, Crude oil inventories

Thursday- EUR monetary policy statement

Good Friday- All major banks closed

Important Headlines

Another China property developer ZHENRO defaults on its bond interest payment and Fitch Ratings downgraded Zhenro to restricted default. The company said that its operations have been halted in the past few weeks due to the lockdowns in Shanghai.

Elon Musk declined the offer for a seat at Twitter’s board after becoming the single largest shareholder in the social media platform with just over 9% share ownership.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD

XAUUSD H4

Gold edged lower from its upper boundary since the Asian open and is trading around the $1940 area.

Our prediction is another fakeout to the upside before heading for a bearish run.

To support our outlook is the Fed continuous rate hike, a stronger dollar and the de-escalation of the Ukraine-Russia war with Moscow spokesperson stated that their “special operation” could be completed soon as objectives have been met.

OIL

USOIL H4

US Crude is ranging above its support at $94. The possibility of a downwards breakout is very likely as the price was making lower highs.

Fundamentals are also bearish for Crude as nations announced oil releases from the strategic reserve. As the biggest importer of Oil, China’s covid situation has not improved with 26000 cases in Shanghai yesterday. With supply increasing and demand dropping, oil price is destined to fall in the short term (in a textbook scenario).

EURUSD

EURUSD H4

The Euro fell against the dollar as Asia opened and the fiber is approaching its key support at 1.0850. CPI and ECB will take center stage this week with CPI on Tuesday and EUR monetary policy statement and press conference on Thursday. 

While waiting for market-moving catalysts, the key levels are 1.1174 resistance and 1.0650 support.

USDJPY

USDJPY H2

USDJPY bounced off strongly from its bullish trendline once market opened this morning. As of writing, it has rallied for 100 pips and the European session hasn’t even started. Testing 125 key resistance which was formed about 2 weeks ago, if it breaks we are seeing 125.85, a weekly swing high from 7 years ago. On the other hand, downside is supported by its trendline and the consolidation zone at 123.5 area.

Our expectations are bullish for the longer term due to the differences in yield between the two currencies and the monetary stances of the respective central banks (Hawkish Fed vs Dovish BOJ)

SP500

SP500 Daily

It was three consecutive days for a slow SP500 as it is getting stucked in the 4500 area and the 200 day moving average is barely providing some support. The US CPI due on Tuesday may limit risk appetite as the forecast figure is raised to 8.3% from the past reading at 7.9%. FOMC may carry out QT at a more aggressive rate with balance sheet trimmed and rate hiked in the very near term.

USTEC

Nasdaq Daily

Last Friday we were discussing about a brief bounce from its support, but that didn’t age well. Nasdaq closed below the support for last Friday’s trading and is currently trading at 14250

ETHUSD

ETHUSD Daily

Ethereum failed to close above 3400 resistance and is ranging at the 3100 area for the past 4 days. If Ethereum falls, the daily bullish trendline may coincide with 2750 support level and that could be a great opportunity to go long. 

In terms of fundamentals, Ethereum is going to undergo a merge where its mechanism is going to change from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS). Some of the most important implications include:

• The existing mining machine is going to be obsolete
• Ethereum mining is going to be more environmentally friendly as it will consume 99% less energy

Mark Cuban is one of the public figures that are extremely bullish on this change.

Welf
Trader, Technical Analyst