Market News
Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, confirmed yesterday that a 50 basis point rate hike during the next FOMC meeting is on the table. He said that we should be moving faster (raising interest rates) as the current monetary policy is relatively loose compared to the tightening cycle in 2004-2006 although the inflation levels now are at record levels.
Russia rejected a proposal for a truce over the Easter period, saying that the Ukrainian army may use that time to arm themselves.
A filing with U.S. regulators showed that Elon Musk has secured a $46.5 billion financing commitment (with JP Morgan contributing $5.5 billion dollars) to acquire Twitter Inc and is considering starting a tender offer for its outstanding shares
Technical Analysis
Oil
Crude Oil H2 Chart
Oil has been range-bound for the past 3 days, trading in between 100 and 105 and 50,200 moving averages. There is a higher tendency for the price to advance though as the war continues after Russia rejected the truce proposal, tightening the global oil supply. If it breaks above 105, we are looking at 115 next.
Gold
Gold H4 Chart
Gold is ranging now after a fierce pullback from its recent highs at $2000 area. Not much movement still as the price is in between the moving averages. Waiting for markets to come back to full force as parts of Europe is still celebrating the Easter holidays.
USDJPY
USDJPY H1 Chart
After hitting a decades-high at 129.40, USDJPY is now consolidating with the price failing to push higher after three attempts. It is now trading underneath the 50 moving average, and the relatively strong bearish momentum may lead the price towards the 200 moving average. Longer-term view remains bullish as we view this as a normal retracement to the impulsive move.
EURUSD
EURUSD Daily Chart
As the Fed is getting more hawkish, USD is expected to strengthen against other currencies and assets in a quicker fashion. It is now lingering around 1.0810 previous swing low. 50 and 200 daily moving average is also adding to the downward momentum. 1.0645 will be our next target if the price breaks below.
BTCUSD
BTCUSD Daily
Bitcoin pulled away from its recent high at 43,000 after the comments from Fed. It failed to close above the 50 daily moving average to initiate another up move.
We have no directional bias as of now, not until the digital currency undergoes a significant break out to either side of 40,000.
SP500
SP500 H4 chart
Wall Street closed down 2.65% following Powell’s comment. Both moving averages acted as a decent dynamic resistance and a short-term target will be set at 4300 support level.
Welf
Trader, Technical Analyst
