Economic Calendar 

Wednesday- ADP Non-farm employment change, US Crude Oil Inventories

Friday- NFP and US unemployment rate 

Important Headlines

Shanghai’s Lockdown

Shanghai begins its phased lockdown for millions of people to carry out mass testing as covid cases surge to record numbers. Tesla was also one of the affected companies where its gigafactory in Shanghai is suspending production until at least Thursday

TSLA Daily

Tesla’s stocks have had a significant break out from their bearish channel and had an eight-session winning streak with +32% gains. It is also trading above the $1000 key level. The production halt in China may affect its bullish momentum. If the stock retrace back to 900 resistance turned support level, it could be a good buying opportunity. Fundamentals suggest that the stock may still continue its rally as the unit deliveries in Europe and China are exceeding analysts’ consensus by more than 15%.

Bitcoin Weekend Surge

BTCUSD H4

After breaking out from its triangle formation 10 days ago, Bitcoin has been picking up pace in its advance. The move got stronger this morning, and Bitcoin is already up 5% since today’s open. With the fresh bullish sentiment, more than $130 million worth of Bitcoin shorts were liquidated in the past 24 hours.

Technical wise, Bitcoin is finally back to breakeven at the $47k area. It has also broken through 45000 and is heading towards 50000 psychological level. 

The Dollar Yen

USDJPY H4

The dollar continued to strengthen against the yen, and the pair has already rallied 174 pips since Asia Open. To put it in perspective, the average daily range of USDJPY is 62.5 pips. It is also tricky to trade in this current situation when this slow-moving pair is up 800 pips since its breakout from 115 resistance, with minimal retracement and its RSI is already in the Oversold territory

The advance can also be contributed to the intervention of BOJ to stop its JGB yield from rising about its key target of 0.25%. As BOJ continues to remain dovish, a hawkish Fed is going to cause a bigger divergence in monetary policies and also in terms of yields, between the dollar and yen. The next big technical level that we are looking at is 125, while support is at its previous swing low at 121.3.

XAUUSD

Gold H1
As mentioned in my previous analysis, gold was indeed faking out and is now trading back into its consolidation range. Looks like everyone is still not convinced in either direction so we will have to wait for the markets to show their hands. Another good long opportunity would be when gold goes back down to test the 1920 support area.

OIL

USOIL H4

Crude oil did not manage to break through 116 resistance and is trading back down towards the 107 support level. Although the short term demand is declining with rising cases in China, the long-term fundamentals may remain bullish for oil as we are still going to lose 3 million barrels of Russian oil per day, and alternatives are not looking promising with the founder of Vanda Insights saying  “There’s just no way even OPEC+ and even combined Iran and Venezuela could make up for it”.

EURUSD

EURUSD Daily

EURUSD remains heavy as higher USD yield fuels dollar appreciation against a basket of currencies. Not only that but the rising covid concerns in Germany may add to the euro’s plight as Germany is the biggest economic powerhouse in the EU.

SP500

SP500 Daily

SPX is almost at the 4600 resistance area while Nasdaq’s bullish momentum is slowing down. We will wait for NYSE to open tonight, as there will be major news announcements this week with ADP and NFP coming out

USTEC Daily

The next resistance level will be at 15000 whole level while support is marked at 14480.

Welf

Technical Analyst, Trader