It is the first Friday of the month, which means NFP is coming out later. However, non-farm reports have played a significantly smaller role in moving the markets recently, with many other pressing events happening around the world.
Source: Trading Central Economic Insight
We can observe that in the past 3 instances, the price of EURUSD has moved less than 10 pips after 4 hours of the news releases, which is significantly slower compared to previous months. Still, we have to trade carefully around major news events as there might be surprises.
EURUSD
EURUSD Daily Chart. Source: Tradingview
It is still looking very bearish for EURUSD as Euro is trading at its weakest against the dollar in 5 years. Lingering around the 1.05000 key level, NFP could be the catalyst for a continued down move, targeting 1.03500 support. 1.0650 and 50,200 double moving average will limit further move to the upside.
XAUUSD
XAUUSD H4 Chart. Source: Tradingview
From a technical perspective, gold made a lower high and formed a nice little bearish trendline, while maintaining its prices under both 50 and 200 moving averages. Rising interest rates will keep gold prices in check in the short term. If gold takes a dive later today, we are looking at 1850 key support.
Crude Oil
USOIL H4 Chart. Source: Tradingview
Oil continues to rise for a third straight day, mainly due to the ongoing supply concern and an upcoming EU embargo on Russian oil. The US is also expected to purchase 60 million barrels of oil for its emergency stockpile.
SP500
SP500 Daily. Source: Tradingview
SP500 closed 3.56% lower following the announcement on interest rates and Powell’s talk.
It is getting pretty heavy at 4150 level. We will see where the market opens later and if it breaks to the downside, we will be looking at 4000 psychological level.
BTCUSD
BTCUSD Daily Chart. Source: Tradingview
Bitcoin had a 7.94% drop yesterday, trading in the range of 36000. As the minor bullish trendline got broken, Bitcoin is in a bearish territory and we may see the coin hit 34400 support shortly. However, there are still no significant moves and our outlook remains neutral.
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